JONATHAN V. BUHARI REMATCH 2015 COULD GO EITHER WAY, TOO CLOSE TO CALL?

Icheoku says unlike in 2011 when Nigerians were still giddy with expectation, with the promised 'breathe of fresh air' which has since turned putrefying, 2015 is going to be a completely and totally different ball game because the honeymoon with Jonathan is since over. In 2011 Jonathan had the benefit of the doubt of Nigerians that he was going to deliver on his promises; but in 2015, Nigerians would be voting for or against Jonathan based on provable records or lack thereof of his achievements this past six years with him in the saddle. So unlike in 2011, in 2015 Nigerians are going to have some records with which to judge Jonathan's  stewardship and thereafter decide whether his performance thus far, is deserving of giving him extension of time to enable him do more. 

But while Jonathan may have some people cheering his performance, there are so many others who think and righty too, that the President Jonathan led Federal government has not lived up to expectation. These are Nigerians who think that Jonathan's government has not delivered on the key benchmarks, usually employed in measuring performance indicia of any government; especially one that is fully primed to winning the hearts and minds of the electorates through verifiable and credible achievements that meets and surpasses expectations. Such vital indicators include energy(power), security and employment, which in turn boasts the general welfare and economic well-being of the citizens. On this three areas, Icheoku rates the Jonathan government rather poorly and Icheoku believes we spoke for majority of Nigerians when we say Jonathan did not accordingly meet many of the peoples' expectations. Even the president himself knows this and is possibly ashamed at his mediocre performance in these areas, especially when weighed against the background of what he said in Addis Ababa in January 31st, 2011. 

Speaking during an interactive session with Nigerians diplomats at an African Union and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa gathering, President Jonathan said "Without security there is no government. So it is not debatable, it is  something we have to address and we are working towards that with vigor. But if I am voted into power, within the next four years, the issue of of power will become a thing of the past. Four years is enough for anyone in power to make to make significant improvement and if I can't improve on power within this period, it then means I cannot do anything even if I am there for another next four years after." Icheoku says it is therefore self evident, according to Jonathan's own measuring yardstick, that "there is no government" in Nigeria because Nigerians are still "without security" and this "is not debatable?" It is also a fact that four years following Jonathan's said statement that "within the next four years, the issue of power will become a thing of the past" and that "if he cannot solve the power problem in four years, he cannot solve it in eight," that Nigeria's power problem has still not been solved and four more years won't make any difference with him? 

So Icheoku queries, having failed to meet his own set benchmark in four years and believing too that he can neither accomplish it within additional four either, would twelve years therefore become his new timeframe, within which to solve the Nigerian power problem? Yet he is running in 2015 without shame and you wonder if he is running on empty? A self-indictment which ordinarily should have operated to stay him out of contention this 2015, except that the APC has provided Nigerians with no much of a choice in whom they selected as their torch bearer? Then factor in the millions of employable but unemployed youths walking around the country jobless and one begins to go into a tizzy pondering if indeed there is any serious government is place in Nigeria, which is seriously and sincerely trying to help these people find a means of livelihood in order to support themselves and their families through well paying jobs? 

Also Jonathan by his strangely weird manner and style of governance that borders on near incompetence, has nearly alienated all the key players that helped engineer his first presidential election victory of 2011. Olusegun Obasanjo traversed the land holding Jonathan by the hand and introducing him to Nigerians as "his political son in whom he is so pleased" and urging them to vote for him?" Icheoku says that both men have now parted ways, with Obasanjo becoming more virulent with each passing day, against the man he helped make president, does not augur well for Jonathan going into the 2015 election? Then add the four former PDP governors of Kano, Sokoto, Kwara and Rivers States that have since bolted away from the Jonathan's 2011 stable; and possibly with their states electorates? Icheoku says this can only be a minus for Jonathan going into 2015, no matter how anyone wants to reposition their talking point. 

The former PDP Speaker Tambuwal is also gone and with him, possibly his own electorates from the Jonathan's camp? Then add the many former Jonathan's ministers, who felt they lost their states governorship bids simply because Jonathan did not care enough to throw Aso Rock's weight behind them and would as a pay back, most probably be rather lukewarm with Jonathan's 2015 reelection bid? There are also some PDP sitting governors whose aspiration to go to the Senate was thwarted by powers at Abuja and who may not forcefully marshal the troops out for Jonathan's 2015 battle? Added to all this PDP internal militating factors, are also so many other external factors that seriously work against Jonathan's second term bid or which would seriously challenge it at best. The likely outcome would be some PDP governors winning their states but Jonathan losing the presidential election in these states; except that the presidential election takes place first and may whirl-wind subsequent election alongside? 

Further, there is presently no fervent excitement at Camp-Jonathan. Party faithfuls are despondent and not as enthused and fired up nor ready to go as should be expected of people eagerly rearing to see their candidate win a second term? Presently the momentum is unequivocally with the APC, which is more impassioned about their great expectation that is winning the 2015 presidential election? As a result, their operatives are on the proverbial steroids and fervently working on turbo props to "mission accomplish" the task at hand. Team Jonathan on the other hand, is principally relying on their incumbency factor and the fact that Buhari is so old school and not much liked by some cross-section of Nigerians? 

Icheoku warns however that this may be the greatest undoing of the Jonathan camp and urge them to wake up and smell the coffee before it is too late. It is about time they started telling Nigerians why their guy deserves to be reelected rather than saturating the hearing and listening space on why the other guy should is not electable and should not be elected? It is about time their narrative ceased from being that the other guy is not good for you but ours is? Rather, they should start to distinctively redirect Nigerians to the performance index or achievement chart of their Jonathan in the past four or six years of his stewardship, which warrants or earns him a return to office. Icheoku emphasizes that momentum is always the tail-wind which usually carries winners over the finish line before their opponents; and this time, APC seems to have it. However, in politics, February 14, 2015 is still a very long way out for purposes of the ever shifting quick-sand that is election  politics, whose fortunes can change in seconds. 

The other factor militating against Jonathan 2015 reelection chances is the conspiracy question, wherein some PDP states governors, especially in the North, might intentionally design a presidential election result that would favor their Northern Buhari, while winning the rest of their states offices for the PDP?  Just like what happened in the Southwest with ACN during the last 2011 election where the ACN candidate could not even win one state from a Southwest that was swept by the ACN. So Icheoku fears that Buhari might secure a block vote in the North, forcing Jonathan to fall back on only South-South and South-east votes, which might not be enough to push him through the finish line before his opponent berths. 

This scenario is projected in that Rivers States might probably go with their three million votes to APC; ditto Ebonyi whose Governor Elechi is not happy with the just concluded primaries; Enugu State, whose Governor Chime was denied his senatorship bid; Peter Obi is no longer in charge in Anambra State to muscle votes for Jonathan; Imo State is not in a PDP governor's hand; likewise is Delta State, whose Governor Udugban was similarly denied a senate ticket and hence this governor might not be full throttle to deliver for Jonathan in 2015? Buhari's added joker would be the Southwest, which together with the North as well as these splinter Southern States, might be what doctor change 2015 has prescribed to swing it in favor of APC and their Buhari. 

Also the APC has concluded that Jonathan is a pushover personality, having gotten away with so much already, and might seriously push the envelope further as February 14, 2015 draws nearer? The APC might cause so much tension in the land that a weak, knee-jerk Jonathan might be forced to just resign to avoid the continuation of the mayhem? Nigerians have observed as Obasanjo have had his way with Jonathan severally without any consequence? Nigerians have also observed how the seven recalcitrant PDP governors held Jonathan's government hostage without consequence? Then came the Amaechi non-stop attacks' on the president as well as Speaker Tambuwal walking away from the party with their speakership intact with no consequence? Then factor in Dame Patience, who is seen as being totally in charge and in control and directing affairs in the Jonathan's government and you have a castrated weak president starring vacantly at what the pregnant 2015 might deliver? 

Then there is the Boko Haram factor, whose Islamic terrorists'  primary objective is to have Jonathan voted out in 2015, if not sacked before then?  As a result, Boko Haram would increase their campaign of terror triple-fold between now and February 14, 2015 to make Nigerians yearn and clamor for a Savior Buhari to come to their aid and save them from the continuing menace that is the scorching heat Boko Haram. It is a time-tested campaign tool to make the people so afraid for their lives that they will seek succor even from the devil, if that would do it. So it is increasingly becoming a mantra that any president that could stop the Boko Haram madness will be good enough for Nigerians? Icheoku says this becomes even a more  palatable proposition and a probable outcome especially when such a presidential candidate created Boko Haram in the first place as a tactical component of his effort to get into Aso Rock and would readily call his foot soldiers off the street following his victory? Icheoku recalls that US President Reagan created somewhat similar scenario when he tacitly made the Iran-Contra deal to stall the release of United States hostages held in Iran until after his election to use the situation as a campaign tool against President Jimmy Carter? Therefore, it would not surprise Icheoku if Buhari is now being 'Reaganistic' in the matter of Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria, hoping to use it as one of his first 'mission-accomplished' things soon following his election? 

But are the shortcomings of President Jonathan enough to totally rock his boat or smash it in 2015 election short of Team Buhari making convincing inroads to offer Nigerians a better alternative? Icheoku says the clamor for Buhari is without sufficiency of merit as there is no guarantee that he can replicate his past performance of 1983-1985 in this 2015 plus. Those rooting for Buhari forgot that during his first coming, a cohesive fiat of maximum ruler was used to enforce a willy-nilly obedience to his orders. But unlike in a democracy, where consensus building rules and is required in order to get majority of key things done, Buhari will no readily longer have his way as he had during his military days. Icheoku wonders, can a Buhari, who is used to having his way in a command-structure environment, successfully have his way through two chambers of Congress, in order to instill his proverbial military-discipline in Nigerians post 2015? Icheoku does not think so and states that he will find it very difficult navigating the process of legislation which will be a very strange new phenomenal for him. However Icheoku laments that  the current crave for Buhari by some Nigerians is trying to technically codify that it is only brute force that Nigerians can be governed; otherwise why the clamor for a dictator to help  Africa's clay-foot giant or hompty dumpty rise again? 

Anyway, Icheoku and others can pontificate until the cows come home, but the decider in chief who will decide who occupies Aso Rock in 2015 is the Nigerian people, the true landlords of Aso Rock who rents the place to whoever they prefer. Only them will decide who moves in or moves out or remains in Aso Rock and to whom they shall hand the keys of Aso Rock in 2015. But until the battle is fought and won or lost, Icheoku will remain an interested observer, prayerfully hoping that good judgment will guide the choice of who eventually becomes the occupant of Aso Rock in 2015. As it stands now, the wind can blow in either direction as there are too many uncertainties and permutations that can swing the tide in favor or either candidates. Icheoku says it would also help if Team Jonathan started telling Nigerians, with a clear road map in support, the trajectory they plan to take the country. Nigerians want to vote for something instead of perpetually voting against someone with the other person being the eventual beneficiary of their votes without any convincing reason to earned it. Icheoku says Jonathan and Buhari, should show Nigerians the money - their superiority, that makes either a better and more preferred option for Nigerians in 2015. Icheoku prays that their campaigns meet and surpass our expectations both in substance and fireworks; and may the election of Valentine's day 2015 be truly meritorious and blood-free. God/Allah's speed to both candidates.