ATIKU'S ROAD MAP INTO ASO ROCK: NARROWER THAN THE EYE OF THE NEEDLE

ICHEOKU says it may sound rather heartless that amidst all the disenchantment and disillusion in the country, that ICHEOKU has not bought into the Atiku messiah on a rescue mission cockamamie. It is not out of any willful indifference, but out of the need to hedge one's bet appropriately, in order not to get a terrifying shock to the system when the inevitable eventually happens. 

ICHEOKU is not flocking along and have actually refused to join the growing herd of Nigerians, who are wishfully, hoping that Atiku will win the coming election, because he will not. There is simply no way, Atiku will defeat Buhari, rigged election or not. Elections are won with a road map, but Abubakar Atiku has none; at least not any that is both feasible and viable. He is a dead ender and once again, will be left holding the plate, once the votes are counted and President Muhammadu Buhari is declared winner, because it is going to happen.

It is good to be hopeful, but it is foolhardy to be hopelessly hopeful, without a reasonable basis or a base on which the hope is anchored. ICHEOKU says getting out of the present state of miasma in Nigeria will take a lot more than an Atiku or that which the crooked and corrupt polygamist can offer and afford. Yes, ICHEOKU says, it is going to take either a military intervention through a coup de tat or Buhari, serving out his term or kicks the bucket, whichever one comes first. But anyone seriously hoping that Atiku will magically win an election against Buhari and that Buhari will willingly hand over to him, has another thing coming; in another parlance, such a person keeps unthinkingness for company. 

A state of affairs which to a large extent, was brought about by the same Nigerians who are now shouting "God forbid." They did it before and they are doing it once again; victims of a rash, rush to action, which they often live to regret. They mislead themselves in 2014/5 into believing that Buhari had a magic wand to the Boko Haram menace and that his military background rightly equips him for that mission as well as fight against corruption. But unfortunately, none panned out and now, an Atiku who merely stole himself to national prominence, is once again bamboozling the gullible that he is a job creating economic guru and Nigerians are once again flocking to him. Interesting.

But the truth be spoken, Abubakar Atiku is not the solution to Nigeria's problems, nor is he what Nigerians needs right now to help lift them out of the cesspit. Atiku is not only a bad news beaver; but Atiku will not and in short, will NEVER be allowed into Aso Rock, period. At best he will be another Moses denied entry into the promised land, admitted he could get close to the gates of Aso Rock to be within its reach, but he will never enter therein. ICHEOKU is emphatic that Abubakar Atiku is most probably just another MKO Abiola June 12th 2.0, loading; as Nigerians will be shocked at not only his defeat, but how easily he will be defeated, fair and square; all the Atikulated vuvuzelas' bee-noise, notwithstanding. 

If ICHEOKU could convince self on Atiku's credentials as being the right fit for the job or that he could win and also not steal Nigeria into bankruptcy, may be, ICHEOKU would have since reconsidered and taken the much easier road out, the more reconciliatory tone of do no harm. But conform, just because it is the easier thing to do, is not in ICHEOKU's character. ICHEOKU would rather remain the lone voice, trying to drum reason into Nigerians ears, than compromise on valued conviction of what is in the best interest of Nigerians.  ICHEOKU would also have since aligned self with all the excited giddiness in the land and join the chorus of the dazed and confused; and save self of all these explaining and anti Atiku rhetoric.  

Understandably, ICHEOKU is still comfortable with the challenge of trying to point the way forward for a Nigerian audience that is becoming increasingly restive and wishing that the Dracula of Daura simply disappeared. They want him out, gone and dispatched back to Daura since yesterday, to be reunited with his 150 gay cows, which have since become stagnated in growth and calves rearing, as well as milk producing. In their desperation, they are about to make a mortal mistake by replacing a Lucifer with a Satan and you ask yourself what changed. 

But the sentiments aside, crunch the numbers and you will see that, unfortunately, all the permutations and calculations supports a Buhari's reelection victory. ICHEOKU says President Muhammadu Buhari will do a second term, regardless of all the pains and suffering as well as discomfiture of the last four years. Simply put, Atiku is neither a match nor a competitor to Buhari, as he will be smoked out of the park because he has no viable route of travel into Aso Rock. ICHEOKU says to put it mildly, Atiku's none existent pathway to Aso Rock, is narrower than the eye of the needle and certainly more constrained that a manhole or that bush path that leads to the village stream. Put more bluntly, it will be easier for Kenneth Andy Okonkwo to win APC governorship in Enugu State than for Abubakar Atiku to smell the roses in Aso Rock, an impossibility.

ICHEOKU has been analyzing and dissecting the chances of both parties in the next coming presidential election 2019 and has come to the conclusion that it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Abubakar Atiku to dislodge the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, from Aso Rock. The numbers are not just there, hence winning the presidency by the Crooked and Corrupt polygamist Abubakar Atiku is rather a tall pipe dream. 

Nigerians, for the most part, are still tribal and primitive in their thinking and political allegiances and alliances. Hence the North will still vote for the Northern candidate and Yoruba will always vote for their own Yoruba candidate; while Ndigbo will also vote for their own nwa onye Igbo. Therefore begging the question, who then resolves the polarity of votes, in order to give an edge to an eventual winner. The answer apparently, becomes whoever successfully convinces the other Nigerians that he will in addition to his own people, also has their best interest at heart. Then enter the 5Ws of who, why, where, when, and what, as the drivers of the campaign messaging,  both in whole and in part. Since the North has two of their sons contesting for the presidency, they will most definitely vote for the son, who they believe will protect the North's interest the most and here is where the cookie of one of the candidates will crumble while the more zealous candidate will skip on to victory. 

It is akin to what is happening in America, where real Americans, particularly the majority Caucasians, are increasingly feeling threatened by a rapidly changing demographics of America, and see in Trump, their only way of pushing back, in their attempt to reclaim their rightful place and possession. This have made them to rally around President Donald John Trump as their acknowledged saving grace Savior, who will shield and protect them from being swallowed up. The Fulani stork of the North will similarly flock to President Muhammad Buhari, who has repeatedly proven and displayed, in no unmistakable terms, that his allegiance is first to his Fulani stork, before the rest of Nigerians. 

So, in the eyes and estimations of the Fulani Nation, although they possible love both their two Fulani sons, Atiku and Buhari; and believe that either of them is good enough for the Fulani continuous hold unto power, but the controlling authority as to who they will break for, will be which of them will give the Fulani Nation a more leg up. Which of them, Atiku or Buhari, will go to the mats for the Fulani cause and damn the consequences. President Muhammadu Buhari has shown through his appointments, utterances and general body language, that nobody else matters to him or is Nigerian enough than his Fulani folks. Such brazen nepotism will endear him more to the Fulani Nation than Abubakar Atiku, who has not proven his total and complete bona fides Fulani bias. 

The conclusion, is that President Muhammad Buhari is the Fulani son, who is much closer to the Fulani aspiration to dominate and take possession of Nigeria, than the more easy going and wives-acquiring polygamist Abubakar Atiku, who, although is also fully vested in the Fulani agenda, but is not as strongly as the zealot, President Muhammadu Buhari.  

The core North, those Northerners who would have since been excised from Nigeria had Gideon Orkar not been too drunk to function; will feel more protected and their powers and influence, more secured and guaranteed, under a Buhari continuing presidency than under Atiku experiment, more so with his choice of an Igbo vice presidential candidate. This consideration will play a very critical role in any decision-making by the North to support or throw their weight behind either of the two Fulani presidential candidates; and it will help to swing their votes for Buhari. Even the Sokoto Caliphate, the Emirate of Kano and Bornu Kingdom as well as everything in between, must have by now weighted this assessment and arrived at this inevitable conclusion. 

So, regardless of how mad the South is against Buhari, in him has the North found a resilient Northern patriot, a fearless fighter, who will defend Northern interest and the North from the resentment of Southerners. In Buhari, their fate and continuing stranglehold of Nigeria is more securely anchored; and in him they trust and entrust their thriving, fully and frontally, as well as unapologetic. So in the battle for the Northern Fulani/Hausa votes, Abubakar Atiku will lose woefully to President Muhammadu Buhari everything factored in.  

Then you migrate your thoughts to the vassal States of the North, the hewers of woods and fetchers of water for the Fulani caliphate overlords; and you reach the same conclusion that they will remain the ever obedient, ever loyal, ever dutiful, ever faithful, un-emancipated feudal servants, who will definitely do what they are told and vote as commanded by the Caliphate. The marching orders will issue from the Sokoto Caliphate and those serviles, Northern minorities, will do exactly as instructed or rather ordered, no questions asked. So, in the minority North Middle Belt North-central region, Atiku will win some States as brownie points, may be one or two States, but will surely lose the rests to President Muhammadu Buhari. 

When the train rolls down South to the Yoruba Southwest, where they have already pitched the issue as a fight for a place in Aso Rock between their own son of the soil Yemi Osibanjo and the Omo Ibo, that Igbo person Peter Obi, how they will vote is as clear as a starry night sky. So, the odds does not look good for Atiku but greatly favors Buhari and it does not matter if they like him; all their consideration will be not to lose their place in Aso Rock to Ndigbo. Yoruba people are like American Democrats, their own is always above reproach, much better and far ahead of others; hence he or she can do no wrong, pitched against the other nationals in Nigeria, especially their arch rivals, the Igbo people of the Southeast. 

The Yoruba people are very smart political jogglers; and being well pupil-ed by the man who introduced tribalism and dichotomy in Nigeria, their chief benefactor, Obafemi Awolowo. The Yoruba Nation knows how to play tribal politics and they play it so well it mesmerizes even the adept players. Therefore, in the battle for a seat in Aso Rock, between Yoruba and Ndigbo, which the forthcoming election has now been narrowed into, the Yoruba people will not vote against their interest. They will vote to retain their presence in Aso Rock and will vote for their own son Vice President Yemi Osibanjo and technically for President Muhammadu Buhari, who then wins the Yoruba Southwest, regardless. It is a vote of calculated risks and the Yoruba people are masters of the game of politics, to understand that it is all about interest and not emotions or emotive sentiments.

There is currently, a strong anti Igbo sentiments brewing in Nigeria, including in the Yoruba Southwest, especially in Lagos. They see in Peter Obi, a representation of what drives them nuts; and they are not having any of it and will not voluntarily increase their psychological trauma and phobia of the Igbo people. They see Ndigbo as land grabbing imperialists, who are out to take their land and make them minority land owners in their own place. Yoruba people will vote to reflect and register this angst and resentment of Ndigbo and they will vote for their son Yemi Osibanjo. For them, it does not matter what happens thereafter; regardless of any hardship which their votes might help rain down. Therefore in the battle for Yoruba Southwest, Buhari wins Atiku and with 3-0 victories now securely tucked in inside his kitty, Buhari will then march on to Southsouth and Southeast to state a claim to the votes there, as well. 

So in battle for the Southsouth and Southeast, Atiku would be fighting a handicap match against Buhari; and there, Buhari's power of incumbency will be maximally exerted to a certain tailored outcome. Buhari will not be gunning to win the Southsouth and Southeast as the objective there will be entirely different than in other regions. The game plan there will be to either substantially increase his votes tally or to keep the number of Atiku's votes very low and down. There are various ways to achieve this result, either a total and complete clamp down of the entire Southsouth and Southeast, under the subterfuge of high security threat of possible breakdown of law and order, or to brazenly rig the election and damn the consequence. 

Either way, the objective will be achieved - to keep Atiku's vote numbers down or increase his own votes in such a way that it will be very close to whatever Atiku might get. Then add it to the sweep of the Southwest, Northcentral, Northeast and Northwest and it is game over Atiku and hello second term. Alternately, Team Buhari can equally  so inflate Kano State's votes alone that it will cancel whatever total votes that may come out of the entire Southeast. Similar thing could also be done in Lagos to counter whatever votes that might come out of the entire Southsouth put together for Atiku. And without Lagos and Kano States, Atiku's chances of winning becomes more distant and extremely difficult, if not impossible.

It is politics and politics is a game of calculated deployments of your best assets, geared towards improving your odds of defeating your challenger/opponent. In the battle for  votes in 2019, the odds strongly favors Buhari and are oddly stacked up against Atiku. Like Murphy's Law, he who has the gold calls the shots. ICHEOKU is emphatic that a sitting President Muhammadu Buhari, who is not circumspect and has no compunction, and who is bent on clinging unto power and will do whatever it takes to retain power, will not be defeated or lose an election to a globally acknowledged face of corruption in Nigeria and polygamist extraordinaire, Abubakar Atiku. 

Unlike Goodluck Jonathan, who was gun-shy about using the awesome fearsome might of the Federal government and timid about deploying them, to an end definitive to mission accomplish a firm objective; President Muhammadu Buhari is a sadist, who derives joy in seeing other people suffer and will not hesitate to use what he has to get what he wants. He has repeatedly demonstrated this before and he never fails in any opportunity to drum this consequential fact into the eardrums of Nigerians, admitted so many of them are deaf and hard of hearing. Also, the coward of Otuoke was squeamish about shedding some blood, forgetting that democracy's tree is periodically watered by the blood of citizens and patriots. But Muhammdu Buhari, on the other hand, is a Dracula of Daura who loves the taste of the crimson liquid and cannot seem to ever have enough of it. So, ever thirsty for more and ever gaunt without a quaff of it, he will unconditionally unleash his dogs of war to win him the election. 

What is imperative is that INEC declares Buhari winner as he can sort out whatever eruptions and fallouts which might follow. He can weather whatever storm that might break out. So, Buhari will fiercely pursue the election, seeing Obasanjo's endorsement of Atiku as a gauntlet which he must accept and then ferociously prosecute the declared war for Aso Rock to a sweet victory. He is a General and he is not afraid of war; and he will see the defeat of Atiku and his gang of vultures waiting to feast on the carcass of Nigeria, as the mother of all wars which he must win. It is most likely going to be his last battle on earth and he will go all the way out, even if it means scorch earth, to get it done. Buhari will not allow himself to suffer a humiliating defeat and the mock of Obasanjo; and will do everything humanly possible to retain his Aso Rock bastion, even if bloodied. Therefore, ICHEOKU vehemently and adamantly reiterates that President Muhammdu Buhari will defeat Abubakar Atiku in the 2019 election and will retain Aso Rock for a second term.