BRAZIL'S CREDIT RATING JUNKED, A WARNING SHOT AT NIGERIA?

Icheoku says the junking of Brazilian economy or rather its credit rating by Standard and Poor's, which stripped Brazil of its premier investment-grade status, is indeed very telling. It is quite  significant and very far-reaching too, especially to the supposedly largest African economy, Nigeria. The credit downsize means that Brazil no longer has credit or rather now has a very poor credit which lenders will find too unattractive and too risky to deal with.  Investors will shy away from such a high risk credit country and at best, deal at their own risk. As is often the case  with such situations, only high risk investors and creditors will  be able to operate at cutthroat  premiums of take it or leave it no choice left for the country. The result, cost of doing business will escalate, the country will get into deeper recession, amassing more debts and the people find it extremely difficult to afford their usual daily necessities; particularly where their availability depends on imports financed with scarce foreign exchange and now no much credit. The effect is usually of a cascading nature as everything becomes unaffordable with majority of consumers priced out of the market and traders cannot replenish their stock as they deplete. Austerity measures are introduced and its domino effect affects every strata of the country.

The credit rating of Brazil became of interest to Icheoku because of the similarities of its economy to that of Nigeria. Brazil is South America's largest economy and so is Nigeria's boasted Africa's largest economy. Brazil's Petrobras was massively corrupt and so was Nigeria's NNPC before the current effort to rejig the Nigeria's oil resources management corporation and hopefully plug the leaky blackhole in the economy. Like Brazil the ongoing war on corruption involving highly placed individuals might increase political uncertainty in Nigeria and the investing world does not appreciate having their money placed in an unstable and shaky financial market. Thankfully the intervention in NNPC, if successful, will somewhat help cushion the jittery world that at least something is being done to contain the corruption plaguing the country. Like Brazil, Nigeria's oil is no longer a prized commodity so much sought after by the world, so to survive and thrive, Nigeria must start sourcing alternative new revenue earners before they are forced to go under. Hopefully Nigeria will not hit rock bottom and become an investment pariah country from which investors will take flight, thereby forcing it on its knees. What happened to Brazil should be an eye opener for Nigeria which must now strive not to taste the same potion currently being served Brazil by the investment world. 

However, the the news from JP Morgan that it will eject "Africa's biggest economy" from its emerging markets bond index due to its tough control of the Naira is not a very welcoming news. Further the news coming out of Nigeria's economic and financial markets is not good enough to continue to sustain bankable investments. The fluctuating Naira which has been on a free fall against major currencies for sometime now, oil the main stay of the economy and the major foreign exchange earner has seen its value plummet to some incredible new lows. The expected infusion of Iranian oil into an already glut world oil market is not a good reprieve either for those in charge of navigating the Nigeria economy. Unfortunately, no one is in charge yet as the president of the country, President Muhammadu Buhari, has been rather too low in appreciating the magnitude of the tsunami headed the way of the Nigeria economy. Otherwise he would have since appointed seasoned technocrats in charge of the economy to help chart and guide the Nigeria economy. Icheoku says a ready-to-hit the road running government would have since appointed economic and finance ministers to reassure the investing world that Nigeria has its acts together and that their investment capital is appreciated and will be safe. 

But where a president has been flying solo as a sole administrator of the country, micro-managing everything including the Nigeria's economy and for four long months now, it leaves much to be desired and telegraphs the wrong message of gross instability. Icheoku says such primitive economic management thinking has no place in today's highly speculative economy where trust is everything. Today's economic engine is driven by activities; people making money regardless of the amount. It eventually adds up. But where activities are nearly frozen with people not knowing what direction the government plans to drive the economy, it always have a chilling effect on the economy and everything tend to tumble therefrom. This is what President Muhammadu Buhari must avoid at all cost because once an economy goes through a seismic shock it is usually difficult to pull it back from the cliff. Icheoku says money in the bank is no money as it loses its essence as a tool that works the economy. Therefore instead of the government focus on saving money, they should rather pump more money into the economy to ramp up activities and thereby get the economy going. Icheoku says all the savings will come to naught if they don't create jobs and economic activities that propels money making. So instead of trying to mop all the money in circulation or save for whatever rainy day, the government should pump tons of money into the economy to help ignite and sustain a continued economic activities and with it eventually will come growth and income boost, indicators of a vibrant economy. 

Nigerians were warned about the mindset of President Muhammadu Buhari which is of the old school thinking of saving money instead of the new school thinking of making more money; but they played possum and he is now president. All every well-meaning Nigerian can do now is to pray that he allows whoever he eventually appoints minister of economy and finance the free hand to midwife an economy that works for all and that is activities driven. But stashing money in bank vaults belongs to the past, it is so yesterday. It is no longer a germane way for economic growth because money is simply a tool and tools are used to get stuff done. Whatever be the cost or price, Nigeria must endeavor to avoid a downgrading of its economy or credit rating because either of them would accelerate Nigeria's economic downfall. It is a given that any country without credible borrowing power or great credit rating cannot operate a robust economy that creates jobs as well as wealth both for her citizens and their foreign investors/partners. So unable to pay its bills, what use then is a country to investors, many of who would be too nervous to further commit assets thereinto. Icheoku prays that unlike Brazil, Nigeria will not go into deep recession, deficit budgeting and economic/political paralysis which might  force the hands of these credit rating agencies to pull the plug, thus turning Nigeria into a wasteland for investments. But the clock is ticking and very loudly; the delayed ministerial appointment is not helping matters either. So President Muhammadu Buhari, please read the handwriting on the wall before the Nigerian economy goes the way of the Titanic.