GUN VIOLENCE IN AMERICA: FOR WHO THE BELL TOLLS NEXT.

Just five people shy of Sandy Hook elementary school mass shooting incident that claimed 26 lives, the Uvalde Texas Robb elementary school mass shooting at 21 victims, now ranks among the highest grossing gun carnage in America. It is sad that such frequent blood spilling has tragically become part of our culture as a society. May the souls of the killed now rest.

25th AMENDMENT: ITS NOW ALL CRICKET.

Madam Speaker Nancy Pelosi once questioned former President Donald John Trump's fitness to remain in office due to what she claimed was his declining mental capacity. Does anyone know what Madam Speaker presently thinks about the incontrovertible case which America is now saddled with? Just curious!

WHO WILL REBUILD UKRAINE?

The West should convert frozen Russian assets, both state's and oligarchs' owned, into a full seizure and set them aside for the future rebuilding of Ukraine. Like the Marshal Plan, call it the Putin Plan.

A HERO IS BORN.

I am staying put. I will not run away and abandon my people. The fight is here in Ukraine. What I need are weapons and ammunitions, not a ride out of town like former Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani - President Volodymyr Zelensky.

IT IS WHAT IT IS.

"There is too much hate in America because there is too much anger in America." - Trevor Noah.

WORD!

A life without challenges is not a life lived at all. A life lived is a life that has problems, confronts problems, solves problems and then learns from problems. - Tunde Fashola.

NOW, YOU KNOW.

When fishing for love, bait with your heart and not your brain, because you cannot rationalize love. - Mark Twain.

JUST THE FACT.

In our country, you can shoot and kill a nigger, but you better not hurt a gay person’s feelings - Dave Chappelle

DO YOU?.

“What you believe in can only be defined by what you’re willing to risk for it." - Stuart Scheller.

HEDGE YOUR CRISIS.

Never get in bed with a woman whose problems are worse than yours. - Chicago PD.

PROBLEM SOLVED.

'The best way to keep peace is to be ready to destroy evil. If you Pearl Harbor me, I Nagasaki you.' - Ted Nugent.

OUR SHARED HUMANITY.

Empathy is at the heart of who we are as human beings. - Cardinal Matthew Kukah.

WORDS ON MARBLE.

"Birth is agony. Life is hard. Death is cruel." - Japanese pithy.

REPENT OR PERISH - POPE.

Homosexuality is a sin. It is not ordained by God, therefore same sex marriage cannot be blessed by the church - Pope Francis.

CANCEL CULTURE IS CORROSIVE.


FOR SAKE OF COUNTRY.


MAGA LIVES ON: NO RETREAT, NO SURRENDER!

TWITTER IS BORING WITHOUT HIS TWEETS. #RestorePresidentTrump'sTwitterHandle.


WORD.

"If you cannot speak the truth when it matters, then nothing else you says matters.” - Tucker Carlson.

#MeToo MOVEMENT: A BAD NEWS GONE CRAZY.

"To all the women who testified, we may have different truth, but I have a great remorse for all of you. I have great remorse for all of the men and women going through this crisis right now in our country. You know, the movement started basically with me, and I think what happened, you know, I was the first example, and now there are thousands of men who are being accused and a regeneration of things that I think none of us understood. I’m not going to say these aren’t great people. I had wonderful times with these people. I’m just genuinely confused. Men are confused about this issue. We are going through this #MeToo movement crisis right now in this country." - Harvey Weinstein.


RON DELLUMS: UNAPOLOGETICALLY RADICAL.

"If it’s radical to oppose the insanity and cruelty of the Vietnam War, if it’s radical to oppose racism and sexism and all other forms of oppression, if it’s radical to want to alleviate poverty, hunger, disease, homelessness, and other forms of human misery, then I’m proud to be called a radical.” - Ron Vernie Dellums.


WHAT REALLY MATTERS IN LIFE - STEVE JOBS

“I reached the pinnacle of success in the business world. In others’ eyes, my life is an epitome of success. However, aside from work, I have little joy. Non-stop pursuing of wealth will only turn a person into a twisted being, just like me. God gave us the senses to let us feel the love in everyone’s heart, not the illusions brought about by wealth. Memories precipitated by love is the only true riches which will follow you, accompany you, giving you strength and light to go on. The most expensive bed in the world is the sick bed. You can employ someone to drive the car for you, make money for you but you cannot have someone to bear sickness for you. Material things lost can be found. But there is one thing that can never be found when it is lost – Life. Treasure Love for your family, love for your spouse, love for your friends. Treat yourself well. Cherish others.” - SJ

EVIL CANNOT BE TRULY DESTROYED.

"The threat of evil is ever present. We can contain it as long as we stay vigilant, but it can never truly be destroyed. - Lorraine Warren (Annabelle, the movie)


ONLY THE POOR WISH THEY HAD STUFF?

“I’m not that interested in material things. As long as I find a good bed that I can sleep in, that’s enough.” - Nicolas Berggruem, the homeless billionaire.

Saturday, June 4, 2016

RIP OPEC: 1960 - 2016, AN ARTICLE BY MATTHEW DiLALLO


Oil Pump With Red MoonAfter another failure to agree on a coordinated oil policy, its clear that the OPEC we once knew has ceased to exist. For more than five decades OPEC has ruled the oil market with an iron will. It decided how much oil to supply to the market, which would all but guarantee a fair price for its members. However, the first warning sign that the mighty OPEC had started to lose its grip on the oil market showed up in late 2014, when it broke from its previous practice of protecting a fair market price for oil by instead focusing on protecting its share of the oil market. Now, after two failed meetings at which the organization couldn't come to an agreement on a coordinated effort to stem the oversupply, it has become clear that the OPEC the oil market once knew and feared is no longer in existence. 

No longer in control:- For decades OPEC had controlled the market and its members through quotas, which were the maximum output levels each member country was allowed to produce. That was intended to keep the oil market well supplied, but not so well supplied that it had a negative impact on the price. However, with the shift from price protection to market protection, OPEC relaxed its practice of policing quotas. As such, many of its members have routinely exceeded their production quotas in recent months, with OPEC's production often as much as 2 million barrels per day above its 30-million-barrel-a-day output ceiling. 

The problem with relinquishing some control over quotas is that it has become impossible to regain that control. That became clear in the past week when OPEC failed to reach an agreement on a new production ceiling. This marks the second time in nearly as many months that OPEC failed to reach an agreement on a coordinated effort to deal with the persistent oil glut that has hampered the market for nearly two years. 

With this latest failure it has become clear that OPEC is no longer able to meet its objective to "co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers." That, in effect, signals its demise as an entity that can drive the oil market. It is a demise that has been made clear by the fact that the price of crude barely budged after each of its past two failed meetings. 

Cause of death: greed and American ingenuity:- OPEC's decision in late 2014 to back off on protecting oil prices stems from its desire to control a large enough share of the oil market to be relevant. Those market-share concerns were stoked as OPEC was starting to lose share in the oil market, due in part to the emergence of U.S. shale production. In fact, it was also losing what was once its top customer: 

US Crude Oil Field Production Chart
As that chart shows, the surge in U.S. oil production directly displaced OPEC's oil, with its exports to the U.S. falling by more than half. 

Given that this production surge was fueled by triple-digit oil prices, OPEC reversed course and pumped at nearly max capacity in order to impair this upstart rival. While that has clearly worked with U.S. imports from OPEC rising as U.S. production declines, it has created a longer-term problem for OPEC, which is the fact that shale production no longer needs triple-digit oil to thrive. 

Instead, thanks to falling costs and some good old American ingenuity, shale drilling's breakeven point has plummeted. Wells that once needed oil over $75 a barrel to break even are now doing so at as little as $30 a barrel. This has come thanks to a combination of efficiency and productivity gains as well as technological improvements. 

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) is a prime example of this. The company is now getting 95% more oil per lateral foot on a horizontal well than just two years ago. Meanwhile, EOG Resources' completed well costs dropped by as much as 42% in the Permian Basin and 30% in the Bakken, with two-thirds of these costs savings estimated to be sustainable at higher oil prices. Furthermore, not only does EOG Resources have more than a decade of what it terms "premium drilling locations," which are profitable to drill at a $30 oil price, but the company's enhanced oil recovery projects in the Eagle Ford shale have nearly doubled the recovery factor of legacy wells, while being solidly profitable at $40 a barrel. 

Meanwhile, global producers like ConocoPhillips(NYSE:COP) have shifted their focus to become much more flexible. ConocoPhillips can ramp its production up or down in response to oil-market needs thanks to the short-cycle nature of shale wells. Furthermore, the company continues to lower its costs through efficiency gains, which has it well positioned for a future likely driven by greater oil price volatility

In a lot of ways U.S. shale has become the new swing producer in the oil market, which was the role that OPEC used to play. As such, it no longer seems to matter if OPEC freezes, lowers, or increases its output, because market-driven factors will determine whether companies like EOG Resources and ConocoPhillips increase or decrease investments that will add or hold back production growth. 

Investor takeaway:- OPEC had a great run, but it would appear that it has become irrelevant in the oil market. In some ways it caused its own demise, because its decision to push down oil prices caused American producers to reduce their costs to survive. Many did just that, with a growing number of shale plays now globally competitive at lower oil prices. This is putting the American oil industry in position to overtake OPEC as the new swing producer in the oil market.

No comments:

Post a Comment