ICHEOKU says the basic rule 101 of any negotiation is never to pony up your most vital negotiation asset because once given up, you have lost and your entire take out thereafter depends on the goodwill and magnanimous disposition of the other party to the negotiation. Ndigbo had it going with the IPOB threatened election boycott of Anambra State but fumbled the ball with the ninth hour change of mind, lifting the IPOB sit at home order.
President Muhammadu Buhari had his way and held the election against the will of the people and no longer has a need of peace in Igbo land nor sees any derivative beneficial use from pacifying them. Going forward, he will toughen his stance against Ndigbo and will also keep Mazi Nnamdi Kanu in detention as long as he sees fit and most likely through the end of his administration.
The Nigerian president has just fired off the first salvo telegraphing this his newly acquired strength over Ndigbo with the continuance of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu trial to January 19th, 2022 next year, which will have him in detention for over six months since his abduction from Kenya in June without trial. Needless to mention that the Igbo chiefs and Oha-na-Eze Ndigbo representatives who flew to Abuja to witness the case were summarily disgraced once again by denying them access to the court room as well as to Mazi Nnamdi Kanu. Even the IPOB team of lawyers, including American Bruce Feingold, were also locked out of the court room only to be told later that they did not show up on time for the case as the case has already been mentioned and adjourned until January next year.
Anyone still delusional on how the election that held in Anambra State will affect Ndigbo needs to look no further. What happened in Abuja's Mazi Nnamdi Kanu's court date shows that Muhammadu Buhari will approach Ndigbo more viciously and more disrespectfully; and without a care in the world. IPOB was aware of the no love lost stand between the president and Ndigbo, yet they cowered to pressure and yielded into holding the election. Now, they must be prepared to feel the heat as all the shouting and press conferences won't a finger lift to secure Mazi Nnamdi Kanu's release. It was a face-off of no election if Mazi Nnamdi Kanu was not released; yet the election held without Mazi Nnamdi Kanu being released. The joker of no election now gone, all the aces are securely with President Muhammadu Buhari and he is tone deaf and impervious to noisy agitation.
It was a mortal mistake which will come back to bite IPOB and hurt the agitation for Biafra in so many ways; and also continue to erode Ndigbo's already comatose standing with Muhammadu Buhari. It is the precursor which will herald the eventual demise of IPOB as they have now entered the one-chance irreversible highway to hell. Buhari has defeated them by holding the election despite their bluffing, period. IPOB have lost their fang and their sting now merely a soothing nibble as nobody will take them and their threats any serious, not any more. There is an American proverb that says you don't tell a man to go to hell unless you are prepared and ready to send him there willy-nilly. Why make a threat when they were not prepared to see it through? It will only damage their standing and rating in the eyes of the world.
Why would an agitation group not first think through their plan of action before announcing it; only to later go back on it. It shows great weakness and lack of tact; and their lack of much needed commitment to do the needful to realize their objective. IPOB showed their hand, they bared their teeth and they barked and they barked, but when it came to forcing the issue, they chickened out, melted away and tucked their tail between their legs and vamoosed. As a result, Anambra State election which was to be the real test case of their wits and to showcase their grip in Biafra land, was botched. They could not stop the election from holding as they have advertised over so many years with their "no referendum, no more election again in Biafra land" and the subsequent "no election in Anambra State until Mazi Nnamdi Kanu is released."
Election held in Biafra land and there was no referendum; and election held in Anambra State and Mazi Nnamdi Kanu was not released. So, going forward, why would anyone ever take the group seriously again? Why would the sit at home continue when the ones sat already did not yield any dividend? They said that they called off the Anambra State election sit at home order because their elders and traditional rulers prevailed on them to do so. Really? Why did they not first consult and listen to the their supposed "elders and traditional rulers" before issuing the order? But no, they issued the order first and then Buhari countermanded their order by issuing his own order that the election must hold, and the election was held. IPOB lost in the face-off, they are now trounced, traumatized and humiliated and going forward, they have a limited choice.
President Muhammadu Buhari won the battle of wits and now, he will do whatever the heck he wants with Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, fully aware that IPOB and Ndigbo can only bark but cannot bite nor do anything about it. IPOB's messaging during the election was very poorly coordinated. It showed a group that have become clueless and leaderless; that their ship is currently adrift and rudderless and taking water; and barely staying afloat until it hit the final iceberg and capsize with the dreams of millions of people. The iceberg will be the eventual conviction and imprisonment of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, when the group will just finally wilt away like a flower with the sunset. It was a huge mistake issuing an order and reneging on its implementation as it is akin to trying to recall the train after it has left to the station but they did anyway and it was catastrophic. Now, they are childlike and their activities, a child's play.
Millions of people were disappointed that IPOB lost its mojo at the hour it mattered most when they canceled the sit at home order of Anambra State Election Day; and couldn't prevent the election from being held. ICHEOKU says is particularly not pleased with the sudden about turn and millions of Ndigbo similarly share in the disappointment, losing the only practical chip that would have caused a serious convulsion to the Nigeria State. The whole world watched and waited to assess the clout which IPOB has in Biafra land only to be disappointed that they have lost their edge. Whoever the decision making council of the group are should hide their faces in shame as they messed up bigly.They bungled the Anambra State election and will forever exist to regret taking the air out of their floating balloon. It is sad and it is pitiful.
But if there is any consolation to come out of the election, it is that the criminally minded Andy Uba was overwhelmingly rejected to a third place finish position with a paltry 43,285 votes out of the total 249,631 votes cast in the election. This was a far cry from the 230,201 votes which he "got" during the APC's primaries to secure the governorship ticket; thus begging the question, did ghosts vote for Andy Uba during the primaries but the same ghosts were unable to vote for him during the election because they were unable to secure visas from this time around? It is an absurdity of the worst kind that the total number of votes cast in the election were almost as many as those who voted for Andy Uba in the primaries.
It is shame of Nigeria that such incredible things happen frequently and it goes to explain how many of the politicians get elected in Nigeria. This is the reason they are fighting against a more regulated election such as electronic transmission of votes. They rig elections and they do it in such a brazen manner as the Andy Uba's two different outcomes have now shown. But will he be ever asked to explain the magical difference between his primaries result and his election result? As it turned out, the entire voters who participated in Anambra State election were less than the number of APC voters who voted for Andy Uba in the primaries. It is ridiculous to say the least, admitted the number that came out during the election were very negligible compared to the number of the 2.5 million registered voters in Anambra State.
ICHEOKU says has no congratulations to extend to anybody, not even to the declared winner Chukwima Soludo. He has a political godfather and too many sponsors and will not be his own man, and like Goodluck Jonathan, he will eventually also disappoint Ndi Anambra. Governance is not only about parading higher degrees, although it doesn't hurt to have them; but governing such a very difficult State like Anambra requires more in addition to the degrees. It requires being made of a sterner stuff with a steely backbone to stand up against the too many "wise guys and gals" that saturate the Anambra State and say no to their myriad of demands and patronages. Can Soludo resist their pressure? Can Soludo outfox and outsmart them like Peter Obi did? Will Soludo become a drunk like his soon to be predecessor Obiano and just ride his term out? Only time will tell.
Theory is one thing but practical is another thing altogether as many can do the talk but transferring the talk into action is often times difficult. The next four years will either bail him out or scorch him bone-dry and there is the likelihood that the same bad road conditions in Anambra State will become worse; that Muhammadu Buhari will squeeze Ndigbo and Ndi Anambra harder, and that Mazi Nnamdi Kanu might still be in the gulag with his case completely forgotten, his lawyers frustrated by the court frequent continuances. Andy Uba might even in anger for his rejection in the election urge Buhari not to listen to supplications of Ndigbo to release Mazi Nnamdi Kanu because their party APC was humiliated in Anambra State. But whatever happens, allowing the election to hold was a very bad mistake and a shooting on the foot by Ndigbo and IPOB; it will hurt them for a long time to come. It is sad.
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