AS NIGERIA BREAKS UP, BLAME IT ON THE NORTH!

A house built on a sandy foundation is bound to fall and so it is with the Nigeria state? A state which was contrapted by the British colonising masters, of several disparate nationalities, clobbered into an amalgamated Nigeria in 1914 and given independence in 1960. A state which has no foundational basis for existence as one entity, not in culture, not in religion, not in language, not in aspiration, not in character and not in geography? A state which none of its many different nationalities desire to remain so yoked together as one and hence do not work towards galvanizing it into a much stronger entity? Nigeria, simply put, was a fraud of the British colonialist; hence the constant quaking of its core, with burning urge for the various nation-states therein, to respectively go their separate ways? Icheoku says, the Nigeria state's ship is fast listing and barring any divine intervention, will soon capsize!

Regrettably, several back to back decrepitude Northern Nigeria willy-nilly governance has brought about the rot that is present day Nigeria. They have not helped the matter in any way; rather they have made the limping child-Nigeria, now a complete cripple. As is evident everywhere within the Nigeria political structure, the lame-child Nigeria is now on a death watch; in comatose, on a life-support, waiting for the plug to be pulled at anytime? Would it be violent or peaceful, no one really knows but the signs are not good. Icheoku would rather Nigeria peaceably winds down rather than shed millions of blood to achieve the same result, - separated federations or countries? The signs are ominous and none of the component parties constituting Nigeria likes the way the country has disappointed its citizens of the expectations of the past four decades plus nine years? So why not these nationalities just sit down to resolve how the common goose that lays the golden eggs can be safely made to cater for the separating states instead of waiting forlornly for a miracle of re-branding?

A Nigeria which Tafawa Balewa, Yakubu Gowon, Muritala Mohammed, Shehu Shagari, Muhammed Buhari, Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, Sani Abacha, Abdusalam Abubakar and now Umaru Yar'Adua, all northerners; helped to sink into political and financial abyss? But is there any flicker of hope for such Nigeria in distress? Icheoku does not think so, as the moribund Nigeria-train has since left the station without a captain? What is today being seen all over the country with all these restiveness is the after-burners of a long festering frustration which is beginning to now boil over? If it is not OPC, it is MEND; if not MEND it is MASSOB, if not MASSOB it is AREWA or their military wing BOKO HARAM, and the list of armed agitators goes on and on? It also follows that one kidnapped victim here, follows another one over there; which number was augmented last Sunday with the abduction of Nollywood's Pete Edochie? Even a Roman Catholic Bishop of Owerri diocese recently fell victim to the now pervading kidnapping menance in Nigeria. Armed robbery has gone off the hook and people are being killed like never before? Blood comparable to that of a war-zone is continously being spilled in Nigeria. Over 47% of youth unemployment persists in Nigeria and politicians appear not to have learnt any lesson in how not to loot the nation's treasury? What other sign is anybody or any doubting Thomas waiting for, one may ask, to read the bold hand-writing on the wall, that the Nigeria state will soon become a historical once was? As with many other failed states, when the Nigerian state eventually fails, everyone will go to his neck of the wood to start all over again; and so, very soon, will be the fate of the various nationalities comprised of Nigeria.

Now the mother of all harbingers of the ill-wind blowing against Nigeria's unity, - a United States of America Pentagon assessment, puts Nigeria in the throes of an imminent possible break-up? As is widely known, these people are hardly wrong with such assessments that Icheoku calls on Nigerians to start bracing themselves for impact! The wrecking iceberg is already sighted on the horizon and only mother-luck can save the impending head-on Titanic collision; which will free all nations hitherto yoked together, to move on and forge their respective nationhoods in the best way they know of? Meanwhile, as the United States military prepares for their beach-head landing in Nigeria to secure the oil facilitites, with a disintegrating Nigeria at sight, Icheoku says, how would the various ethnicities in Nigeria accept this impending fate? Will the landlocked north accept their fate or will they battle to the finish to maintain a Nigeria which will give them access to the waters of the Atlantic as well as the oil wells?

According to Mr. Daniel Volman, Director of the African Security Research Project in Washington, the Nigeria infamous date with history is the year 2013, two years after the 2011 elections, when inter-ethnic wars were supposed to fully break up Nigeria? International dimension will be added to it because of Nigeria's oil and other mineral resources deposits with United States of America, Europe, China and Russia possibly taking sides in the battle of 'Serengeti', which will take place in what was formerly known as Nigeria? One school of thought even posits that the United States had concluded arrangement to interven militarily, upon the imminent collapse of Nigeria, to principally secure their oil access. Icheoku asks, will Russia, China, France and Britain watch in silence with hands akimbo, as the United States takes over yet another major oil fields of Nigeria? The test of the pudding is in the eating, so we must avoid sounding presumptuous and wait to see how the problems of a disintegrating Nigeria will be eventually solved? Barring a United States of America direct intervention in such Nigerian scenario, a Ghana or South Africa or Africa Union led military intervention is equally being bandied as an option. Also there are indications that within the government of Nigeria itself, various fault-lines are emerging among officials, which does not bode well for a government with any given survival skills. Such is the prospective calamitous state of events in a disintegrating Nigeria, that it is being suggested that the exigency of it might force the hands of the United States to go it alone and intervene, in event the other powers drag their foot or object or appear not cooperative?

It is instructive that in 2005, the same United States assessment had placed Nigeria's possible break-up around 2015; which is not too far from the new benchmark of 2013? It would appear that certain variables have since changed necessitating the shortened date. Icheoku says, knowing fully well that this new estimate will once agian be criticised by Nigerian leaders as they did in 2005, why won't Nigerian leaders work to fix what is broken that is accelerating the demise rather than mouthing-off against a percieved ill-will?

Also another man who should know, having been in the seat of power before and somewhat well connected, the Islamist Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria has alerted Nigerians that their country is on the very verge of a total unraveling and that post 2011 seems to be its infamous date with history? He called Nigeria, a Somalia in the making? Icheoku says, since this appears to a fait accompli in the eyes of Buhari, does he also know the kind of Somalia, Nigeria will become? Who will be shooting at who in a "Somaliazed" Nigeria? How will the battle be pitched in Nigeria's Somalia; a north against the south or the Islamists against the Christians and/or the Animists? Or will it be the minorities of the Niger Delta and Benue-Plateau against the majorities of Hausa-Fulani, Igbo and Yoruba? What is the dimension of this Buhari's prediction or will it be a wild wild west eliciting each to his own type of survival resistance? In Somalia, Islamist fundamentalists are shooting normal, regular and rational people; so Buhari, Icheoku will like to know, when the time comes, whether you will lead your band of Jihadists to charge against all "alunas" infidels of the country or what? In Buhari's own words, Nigeria could become lawless and ungovernable, post 2011. Icheoku says, since Buhari's post 2011 date seems to tally with the 2013 and 2015 being projected by other plausible sources, some credibility exists in these estimates. Nigerians should be wary and indeed very frantic in finding a solution to its problems in order to prevent the impending tragic end of a country, which had so much promise in 1960, but which the Hausa-Fulani of Nigeria ineptitude had decimated into a beggarly nation of criminals and very corrupt officials?

Peradventure, it may not take until 2011 plus to determine the faith of Nigeria since the sickman of Katsina may yield to his debilitating disease anytime and the war for his succession will trigger the end. Whether the war will be pitched North-west against the South- south or more broadly, the North against the South it will not be palatable as the end may see a Nigeia that is no more? A North which will insist on having its full eight years in office served out and a South whose vice president automatically should step into a presidential vacancy in such a happenstance, insisting on the letters of a democratic succession? Only time will tell?

But could the general malaise in Nigeria have been prevented, certainly; but when a group of very arrogant and selfish mullahs obtrusively decide to hold the country hostage, despite their proven gross incompetence, then the natural consequence of their ineptitude and stupidity is the fast approaching cataclysmic end of what was once Nigeria? Call it a prophecy of doom if you like, but the signs are simply not good but portends of grave danger and a threat to the existence of Nigeria? Why would a people without the necessary know-how, forcibly foist themselves on a country with so much manpower that would make South Korea and the rest of the other Asian Tigers green with envy; and would have given them a run for their money, were reasonably competent people to be at the helms of affairs therein? No, a bunch of vermins with almajiris-backgrounds, who were brought up thinking that governance is their birthright, irrespective of whether or not they know what it takes to govern well, are in charge and are simply too lazy to think outside the box to fix what is broken of and in Nigeria?

What aspect of Nigeria's life is in order, none? And the North is in charge of practically everything therein:- the presidency, the senate, justice, judiciary, agriculture, finance, customs, fededral capital territory, petroleum, science and technology, petroleum training development fund, power holding gompany of Nigeria (formerly NEPA), national inland waterways authority, federal roads maintenance agency, national planning, nnpc, central bank, women affairs, sports and culture, tourism etc? Nigeria which hitherto was known as a footballing nation no longer even qualifies out of regional competitions, because some mallams who never kicked the round leather are incharge of the NFA? Even the telephony being bandied today as an achievement was made possible because the North yielded way for some more ingenious people to prove that telephone is not and should not be the exclusive preserve of the rich only? So when someday, soon and very soon, you wake up and Nigeria is no more, look up north to see the reason why the experiment called Nigeria went belly up! A grossly incompetent bunch who forced themselves on Nigeria and ran it under. Icheoku says, just blame the north for the eventual inevitable requiem of Nigeria.