ICHEOKU says Russia might be successful with the first wave of offensive, but what happens in the days, weeks and months following will be utterly different. Adolf Hitler's Germany successfully overran France, Poland, Italy and other countries which it invaded, leading up to the first world war; ditto Saddam Hussein with his invasion of Kuwait.
But when both dictators' militaries were eventually challenged, allied forces and the coalition of the willing forces were able to drive both occupying armies out of the respective countries. The fallouts from both military misadventures led to the end of the two dictators. Whether a similar fate is now eerily staring Russia's President Vladimir Putin on the face, will be determined by the next step which he takes, ordering Russian troops into Ukraine. The clock is ticking.
Every indication now points to the likelihood that Vladimir Putin will pull the lever and dare NATO and the West to do their worst. If he orders his troops into Ukraine as expected, will the West and NATO be brave and courageous to mount a counter offensive against the invading Russian military and stay the course until they drive them out of Ukraine? Will the history of Germany and Iraq repeat themselves in Russia, and at what cost to both sides, in human and material resources. Will the West be ready to absorb the number of resulting casualties from such war and will the war be quickly over or will it linger on for some time. What will be the level of active participation of European countries or will they, as usual, cunningly shirk their responsibility and compel America to bear the burden of fighting Russia.
ICHEOKU says any resulting war in Ukraine to expel invading Russian forces must be borne largely by countries of Europe, at least 65% of it, with America taking up the remaining 35%. The European Union countries population is nearly 800 million people, which is far more than double the United States of America's 350 million population. Their combined GDP is also close to or even more than the United States of America's GDP, which means that their combined wealth is or could be even greater than America's. America therefore, must not accept to shoulder the burden of fighting Russia alone nor agree to take a huge chunk of it as would adversely impact America's taxpayers and their military. Such a war effort must be fairly distributed among the countries of Europe and their American partner under the auspices of NATO.
Why President Vladimir Putin is pushing ahead with his plans to invade Ukraine, despite the consequences of any such military adventurism, is beyond ICHEOKU. It does not matter how he chose to calculate his odds in such a war, both in winning it and/or successfully achieving his military objective, corralling Ukraine back to Russia control; such a war will impact him and his country negatively and badly. It is unimaginable that President Vladimir Putin would think that America will allow him to win such a war, and/or permit him to reassert himself over Europe by putting fear in other former Union of Soviet Socialists Republic countries, that what happened in Ukraine might also become their fate unless they prostrate before Kremlin.
Invasion of Ukraine is a war which Russia will not win and will not be allowed to win. What happened in Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as in Crimea will not be allowed to repeat itself in Ukraine. It might be very bloody and very costly; but no matter what it takes and regardless of however long it may last, President Vladimir Putin will not be allowed to take a victory lap over Ukraine. Therefore he will be making a big miscalculation by starting a war in Ukraine now that the American military is not presently bogged down anywhere with an endless war. Since America pulled out of Afghanistan, the military industrial complex has been smarting for another conduit pipeline to be opened for them somewhere, where they can continue their trade in weapons and war profiteering business and Russia's invasion of Ukraine might be their answered prayer.
If President Vladimir Putin takes the bait by invading Ukraine, he might find his military fighting a never ending war both in Ukraine and inside of Russia and which war might outlast the Afghanistan engagements, by both the former Soviet Union and most recently America. Will the Russian economy be able to sustain a twenty years running war and can the Russian military be able to defend all Russian borders from a ferocious NATO multiple counter thrusts. Such a war to repel Russian troops from Ukraine might even, at some point, find the Russian military also defending their Moscow and Saint Petersburg too. Are these costly trade-offs what President Vladimir Putin will be willing to make by invading Ukraine?
It will be very foolish of President Vladimir Putin to jeopardize his power hold over Russia by risking it all, just for an egoistic invasion of Ukraine. But he is not too foolish to start a war which he cannot win and will not be allowed to win. He said that he is not planning to attack Ukraine, yet he is mobilizing his military forces to Russia's border with Ukraine. Only a foolish Ukraine defense force and their NATO partners will be goaded into a lull of unpreparedness by such a foolish Russian assurance. The same President Vladimir Putin once gave a similar assurance, when automatic rifles wielding and balaclava wearing men were seen in Crimea, that they were not Russian soldiers, and the world has since seen how that assurance panned out.
This time, the Ukrainian forces must not allow themselves to be caught flat-footed by banking on such assurances, otherwise they will wake up one morning to find Russian troops occupying their presidential palace in Kiev. NATO should also start a counter mobilization of its forces into Ukraine and adjacent countries, ready to engage, as soon as the first Russian tank enters Ukraine. Let nobody be taken by surprise as such might give the invading Russian forces an undue advantage, during which time they would have caused a lot of damage inside Ukraine. It is not if, but when, Russian troops will be ordered to breach the borders of Ukraine and preparations to meet them head-on should be in high gear right now.
Saddam Hussein's military was expelled from Kuwait and so should NATO be ready to also expel Russian troops from Ukraine in the event they do the now seemingly inevitable and enter Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin should not and must not be allowed to have his way with Ukraine, because if he succeeds, he will make other demands in the future for other former Soviet Union countries to be handed over. It is about time his Bonaparte's enthusiasm is forcibly curbed and he needs to be reminded that his dictatorship can only be tolerated in Russia but not in any sovereign independent country. It is time to face him down squarely, eyeball to eyeball and military to military. Russian soldiers are not made of steel and their weapons are not indestructible. Enough of tolerating his shenanigan; if he wants war let his desire be met.
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