ICHEOKU says the school of thought which postulates that Muhammadu Buhari will probably be the last president of an undivided Nigeria may likely have their wish come through, unless the military stages a coup before the end of 2022 and that way starve off the looming implosion of the country. With Sudanese government now fallen to a military coup, the scenario is now set for Nigeria military to be tempted, aware that military coups are once again cool in Africa and that foreign powers are no longer interested in intervening to stop them. No foreign country has intervened in the already four military coups successfully staged in Africa so far; and the likelihood that this policy position of no interference will change any time soon is practically non existent, at least not for now.
With President Joe Biden's new foreign policy redirection away from nation building overseas, as well as the overall apathy of the United States of America in entanglements in other countries internal affairs matter, following their ugly experience of being chased out of Afghanistan by the Taliban, it will be difficult to see any military in Africa being stopped now should they decide to take over governance. Put in another words, it is apparently clear that there is now a newly declared open season for the military in Africa to get back in the saddle of power. They are once again at liberty to overthrow their government whenever they feel like it, knowing fully well that no outside power will challenge them. This is the reason the count is rising and it can only go one way - up.
First was Egypt where then General Sisi with the tacit support of Western countries overthrew the elected President Mohamed Morsi and took back power before transitioning to a civilian president. Then Mali happened and their colonial master France looked the other way when Colonel Assimi Goit took over power in Bamako. It is on record that the colonel was trained by the United States of America with necessary implication that America equally signed off on his putsch. Following so soon thereafter, the military in Guinea overthrew the elected President Alpha Conde and took over power. Some noises were initially made about it and the need for Guinea to return back to democratic governance, but Colonel Mamady Doumbouya is still calling the shots in Conakry unperturbed.
Now Sudan has joined the growing retinue of countries in Africa to have surrendered their democratic governance to the men and women in jackboots. Like other countries before it, nothing will happen to reverse what is currently the situation in Khartoum as Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Burhan will also consolidate his hold on power undisturbed and unperturbed. Unlike when President Donald John Trump was in power and countries around the world feared his unpredictability, many military leaders were apprehensive not knowing how he might react should they venture into power. But now, many of these countries and military leaders no longer have the same fear about President Joe Biden, the reason the number of military coups is suddenly skyrocketing in Africa.
So, the real question now is which country's station will the military intervention train barreling through Africa stop next? Judging from the way things are rapidly deteriorating in Nigeria, it is possible that Nigeria will host the next military intervention in Africa and when it does, it will trigger a domino effect in the rest of the countries, particularly those in the West African sub region. ICHEOKU says a military coup is likely to take place in Nigeria before the 2023 scheduled election: first, to prevent Nigeria from splintering into many ethnic regional groups and second, to ensure that power remains in the North. Many factors will lead to this military takeover in Nigeria and they are increasing in strength daily.
As things stand presently, the natural group to produce the next president in Nigeria in 2023 are the Igbo people of Southeast Nigeria. But many forces are trying to sabotage it and prevent and deny them the opportunity of putting one of their own in Aso Rock in 2023. If these forces succeed, it might trigger a crisis of immense proportion which might lead to Nigeria falling apart and into pieces. It will help fully galvanize the Igbo people around IPOB for the final push to get out of Nigeria. The Yoruba Southwest is also trying to put Bola Tinubu in Aso Rock in 2023, despite having produced Olusegun Obasanjo as president for 8 years and also the now serving Vice President Yomi Osibanjo who would have served for 8 years by 2023.
But Nigerians will resist it as an unfair attempt by Yoruba people at ethnic domination of others; but the Yoruba will stand their ground and push for a Yoruba president in 2023. The Hausa/Fulani North fearing a loss of power will then engineer a military coup for a Northern Army General to overthrow President Muhammadu Buhari in a palace coup and take over power, in the name of stabilizing Nigeria with a promise to conduct a new election after drafting a new constitution. Such a bait of drafting a new constitution will be lapped up by the polity and he will use the opportunity to consolidate his hold on power. It is a game they play and every indication shows that the present government in Nigeria is headed that way unless reason prevails and an Igbo Southeast person is elected president in 2023.
ICHEOKU says military coups in Africa are popular because democracy have not delivered the promised dividends, as many politicians turned out to be worse than the military, both in the level of their corruption and degree of incompetence In military regimes, very few generals dip their hands in the country's pie, unlike in democratic dispensation when thousands of politicians descend on the country's pie like ravenous vultures engaged in a feeding frenzy to bankrupt countries. It is more expensive to run a democratic government than it is a military government; and Africa is not rich enough to continue to carry on with the so much waste of resources involved in a democracy. It is the mistake Western countries make, thinking that democracy is a one-cap fits all good for every country ideal, but it is not, as Africa is not rich nor ripe enough for democracy.
Many Africans share this view, the reason African people still pour out on the streets in large numbers each time there is a military coup to celebrate these military "messiahs" who takeover their corrupt and incompetent governments. Nigerians for example, are giddily waiting for the day they will hear a martial music on radio to pour out on the streets celebrating a military officer who eventually saved them from the current government, a government that will easily pass as the worst, ugliest, most despotic, ruthless and incompetent government to ever the saddle the seat of power in Nigeria. The level of insecurity, food scarcity, collapsed education, hospitals, depression, suicides, shortages of everything, repression and oppression, as well as ridiculously high cost of governance, have removed the shine in democracy in Nigeria; ditto in so many other African countries.
This is why the military strikes in Africa and this is why they are always welcomed by the people with great jubilation. Democracy have not brought to Africans its tall promises and the people lack more things during a democratic government than they do in a military dictatorship. Practically everything collapses in a democracy, with clueless and thieving politicians, whose only motive of seeking power is to amass enormous wealth for their families and unborn generations. The level of brigandage and banditry are such that they literary steal every fund meant for developmental needs including funds for hospitals, education, economy and security, leaving the people wondering why and what for, if such are what democracy brings. Africa is not yet ripe nor ready for democracy and a military with some human kindness will always be preferred any day to the band of rogues masquerading as politicians in Africa. So, with Sudan now in the bag, which country falls next? It is sad but true.
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