ICHEOKU says exactly what giving someone the middle finger really looks like. Unfortunately, some Nigerians and Aremu Matthew Kikelemo Olusegun Obasanjo miscalculated in their thinking that a retired, ruthless army general will just tremblingly scurry away from Aso Rock simply because the Ota Deity aired an opinion. As they are now terribly beginning to find out, albeit rudely, the Dracula of Daura is not a man of brittle courage; nor is he easily intimidated or shies away from confrontation and he does not allow mere mortals to meddle in his affairs or come in-between him and his dreams. A presidency which he spent nearly all his adult life time seeking and contested for on three previous occasions but failed; before finally winning on the fourth try and somebody named Olusegun Obasanjo said what to make him jump off the cliff. ICHEOKU says but not in this life and not in the life of Olusegun Obasanjo and all the Nigerians who are wishfully thinking that Buhari would just walk away from and say so long to Aso Rock. But who the heck is Olusegun Obasanjo that he would dictate to a sitting president not to seek a reelection, a right which the president is both entitled and qualified to exercise. The same president who Obasanjo once told Nigerians was qualified enough to be president despite having no certificate. The resultant failure not withstanding, but the Ota Deity has no right nor moral authority to mouth off, complaining about the failures of President Muhammadu Buhari. Olusegun Obasanjo is not the custodian or guardian or controller in chief of Nigeria and no one appointed him Aso Rock's official guardsman or policeman, hence he has no right to dictate to anyone as to who has the right to aspire for its occupation.
A matter made worse because the Ota farmer had no decency to even apologize to Nigerians for misleading them into electing Buhari president when they did. But here he is running around and running his mouth about a Buhari's failed presidency as if he or anyone had expected otherwise or any better; but he went ahead anyway to make it happen due to his hatred for Jonathan. ICHEOKU says if President Muhammadu Buhari is a failure or is running a failed presidency, how about the person who helped establish such a failure and a failed presidency? Any civilized decent person, similarly complicit as Olusegun Obasanjo was in the Buhari's election, should have first apologized to Nigerians for his role in bringing about the Buhari's presidency. Such a person would have also taken some responsibility for the failure to launch which the Muhammadu Buhari's presidency turned out to be. But not Olusegun Obasanjo, not the egotistic, self serving Ota Deity, who sees nothing good in anyone else but himself; a narcissistic fellow, who cannot and has refused to accept that he is the grinch who stole Nigerians' Christmas with the Buhari's presidency. He is also a guilty party in the tragedy that is a Nigeria stalled since 1966.
But the good news is that Buhari is not Jonathan. Unlike the coward of Otuoke who nearly suffered complete nervous breakdown when Obasanjo fired his missile of "do not seek a reelection" at him, and with great trepidation staggered through his reelection campaign and never fully recovered from the shock and ended up losing the reelection bid, President Buhari is not fazed. He will most likely win his own reelection bid much easier than anyone expected, no matter what is thrown at him in form of curve balls. He is a soldier and once a soldier always a soldier; soldiers do soldier on and so will Buhari. Soldiers also crush everything and anything on their way and so will Buhari. Soldiers have courage and such is not in short supply in Buhari's heart either. Buhari is dogged and Buhari has tenacity, two qualities necessary for electioneering campaign successes and Buhari will succeed in his campaign for reelection, regardless of the hateful Olusegun Obasanjo wishes.
ICHEOKU says so, despite all the noise in the social media and whether thousands of Olusegun Obasanjo like it or not, President Muhammdu Buhari will win his reelection bid in 2019. The president has the courage, audacity and resolve to so do and the president will in fact actualize it. This is the reason and after examining all the odds, that he went forth to announce that he is running for reelection in next year's Nigeria's presidential election. ICHEOKU is not particularly a fan of his, but strongly believes that with a very weak opposition and no courageous strong candidate to field against him, Buhari will emerge victorious come election night on February 15, 2019. At the end of the day, it will boil down to certain factors, especially now that Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian, is spearheading the anti Buhari second term, with calls for him to quit.
It will become a narrative that Christians are ganging up against Muslim Muhammadu Buhari. It will come down to the wire of the North against the South, the "we and them" factor. But when all is said and done, the North will galvanize together into one voting bloc, because the Sultan of Sokoto Caliphate will direct them to, and fall solidly behind their favorite son, President Muhammad Buhari and vote en bloc to reelect him. At 19 Northern States against 17 Southern States, the balance is already tilted in the North's favor; and regardless of who the opposition decides to field as their own presidential candidate, the North will hold that person with contemptuous suspicion. If the person is a fellow Muslim Northerner, the North will brand him a saboteur and stooge of the Christian South, who will not protect their Northern interest and will ostracize him forever and will not vote for him either.
The North has a peculiar mindset which is one directional, one objective tinged; and which is geared solely towards the protection of the North's interest. In President Muhammadu Buhari, the North trusts; and they could not have had a better, sectional, religious and tribal champion than him. So, no matter who the opposition raises from the North to contest the presidency against President Muhammad Buhari in 2019, that person cannot have a better Northern bona fides than President Muhammad Buhari. A certified Fulani Northern president of Nigeria, who has in words, actions and deeds, manifested his abiding loyalty and commitment to the cause of Northern domination of Nigeria beyond any question. So on the issue of who is truly more Northern, President Muhammadu Buhari wins whoever the opposition candidate is handily.
Further, the power of incumbency is another controlling factor in winning Nigerian elections. First, with the issue of fund raising, no businessman or woman or even bank directors will publicly make a hefty donation to the opposition party or candidate, afraid of the consequences for being shut out by the government from the economic pipeline, with denied licenses and increased EFCC closer scrutiny. It will translate to zero business and zero government patronage of any sort to such a donor and no Nigerian likes to be left in the cold of the power corridors. So Buhari's reelection campaign will out raise the opposition in campaign funding and more money means more leverage. Remember too what Murphy's law said that he who controls the gold, makes the rules; and in Nigeria, the executive president is still the it and access still translates to everything as well.
Also, all the security agencies of the government from the army to the Navy to the Airforce to the police to the State Security to National Intelligence to Customs as well as Immigration and of course the arbiter of the election INEC, are all at the beck and command of the incumbent president. He appointed their heads who stand a better chance at retaining their plum positions with a reelected President Muhammadu Buhari than taking chances with an incoming new president whose first order of business might be to fire them. These honchos will see themselves as equally having a stake in the outcome of the election, hence the business of electing the president will become their business as well; and they will do whatever it takes to ensure his victory. In Nigeria, all it takes is a few canisters of gas and it is to your tents Oh Israel and every body will Ben Johnson away to lick their wounds.
Lastly, President Muhammadu Buhari is a man of uncanny courage who has shown the will to survive and is not circumspect about visiting pain and suffering on any disfavored person. He is a fighter and for fighters, winning is everything. Before he declared his intention to seek a reelection, he and his inner advisers must have weighted their options and came to the conclusion that the coast is clear, hence he stepped forward despite the antagonisms including from Olusegun Obasanjo. Now he has to deliver and deliver he will. With 19 States safely tucked in as assured winnable, all he has to do is to win at least 3 out of the 6 Southwestern States; possibly 1 from the Southeast and may be another 1 from the Southsouth States and the deal is done, signed and delivered. All things considered and every indicators working as they should, ICHEOKU emphatically says that President Muhammad Buhari will win a reelection in 2019 and for four more years through 2023, will continuously visit his iniquities on Nigerians who run afoul of his favor.
ICHEOKU agrees that the sentiments expressed by two artisans, Remi Adeyemi and Abdullahi Ali, somewhat captured the mood of Buhari's voters. According to Remi, "We want him to come back so that he can finish the good work he has started" and Ali added "I like Baba very well. My people will vote for him again because he is not a thief." For most part, the masses still vote most in elections and the masses will vote their hero in 2019; and that is the key to President Muhammad Buhari's reelection victory. So, despite all the noise and distractions, it is more likely than not that the reelection of President Muhammad Buhari is a fait accompli. Yes, some Nigerians may not like him; yes, some may loathe him even to the point bothering on hatred; but Buhari still have some supporters, including those who do not necessarily like him but would vote for him anyways due to some other self preserving reasons, regardless.
Further, the floundering opposition will provide the president some wind underneath his sail as no serious opposition translates to a much easier win. According to one Anthony Godwin, "With the PDP weak and still discredited, incumbency is still a powerful factor. It would be a huge surprise if Buhari was not the APC's candidate and the candidate to beat in 2019." ICHEOKU completely agrees that the odds of winning a reelection favors the president a great deal and without mincing words, adds that President Muhammadu Buhari will win his reelection in 2019. Although things might not be as rosy as many had expected during his now concluding first term, but there is still some hope that his second time around, without the much distractions of protracted health scares which marked his first term, that he will be in a much better state of mind and of health to try and figure out the way forward for Nigeria in boondoggles. God speed Mr President and to all the other gladiators, who are yet to be unveiled, readying themselves to duel with him for the presidential trophy. But whatever happens, Nigeria 2019 is heavily laden and hopefully will be safely delivered.
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