Tuesday, December 16, 2014
NIGERIA CAUGHT IN THE WEB OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS?
Icheoku says world oil price plummeted further today, to a new low of $55 per a barrel. Today's price is the lowest the gluey substance has been in recent years. It dose-dived from its high peak of $110 just a few weeks ago to the new half-off price and there is no sign in the horizon that OPEC would ever see a new price rocket, not anytime soon? There is even speculation among financial analysts and oil traders that before Christmas, just nine short days hence, that the world might see oil price forced down below $40 per barrel and Icheoku asks what would Nigeria, a country whose 94% of foreign exchange earner is oil-based, do? If nothing else adequately explains the dark gathering clouds, lets say it is simply ominous. The economies of these OPEC countries particularly those with no other solid industrial base to help cushion the effect of this oil price bottom-drop, will seriously take a hit.
Anyway it is international politics and as always when two elephants fight, the little shrubs suffer; so caught in the crossfire of the turf war over Ukraine between the United States cobbled Western powers and Vladimir Putin led Russia, other little flies in the oil producing business like Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran are now partaking in the bitter meal prepared for Russia. An oil price smack-down attack primarily targeted at Russia to force them on their knees and eventually make them vomit the swallowed Ukrainian city of Crimea as well as stop their meddlesome interloping in eastern Ukraine, is now affecting these other countries. It is the unintended consequences of Washington DC concert with Riyadh against Kremlin or what Collin Powell would rightly call collateral damage in a warfare.
So Icheoku wants to know what a country like Nigeria, which had made provisions in their economy based on the high $110 oil price, would do now that their foreign exchange earner is selling half their original budgeting estimate? Where do they plan to find the balance or are they going to cut down on services and capital developments to fit into their new reality. Anyway, Iran, Venezuela as well as emerging new oil sheiks of America, who found fracking the new money spinner, are now licking their wounds because of the multi billion dollar investments they have made so far in the fracking industry. The Americans, projecting to overtake Saudi Arabia as world's largest oil producer within the next few years, are now wondering what hit them and contemplating the next step forward, having seen their golden goose now laying silver eggs instead, due primarily to one country's machination?
Icheoku says the world now know why the Kingdom of Saud is a very important player in world oil politics, such that whenever they sneeze, the world oil supply and price catches either cold or fire, depending on their intended objective. A small country with a population of less than seventeen million people, controlling more than 69% of the total proven oil reserve in the world, is one heck of a big player in the manipulation of oil supply and price. The only good news out of this is that for the first time in nearly twelve years, Americans are now beginning to see pump gasoline price go below $2 ($1.89)per gallon from the very high of $6 per gallon at its peak. Icheoku says like a fat kid loves cake, we are loving it, the fact of this new gasoline pump price. It is one man's loss which spells gain in another man's wallet and as a consumer, Icheoku is loving the price war.
We also pray that, like the biblical Pharaoh struck deaf, that Putin never listens nor hears that oil price is going down the toilet alongside his Rouble currency which has lost half its value so far; and may Saudi Arabia continue to stick it to OPEC and may their almighty oil go as low as $7 per barrel for all Icheoku cares. Possibly with the Nigeria situation, a useless oil might help quell the ever restive Niger Delta original terrorists? Icheoku asks who would not want to fill his tank with less than $20 from the high eighties we paid before the current bonanza, for crying out loud. As for all those country who rely solely for their foreign exchange earner, on the volatile oil, which unfortunately they do not have control over, Icheoku says may be it is about time they put on their thinking cap and figure out how to live a life without the black liquid.